| Life, and change management, and people's behaviors, | | | | using de facto non-linear thinking. It is banking on |
| are not linear. Excuse my language - I'm assuming the | | | | socialization a la Ormerod. It means that if you create |
| reader's understanding of mathematics is similar to | | | | some change which, even if small, is very visible and |
| mine, which is that I just about get it, and I'm ready to | | | | which people can copy, that small change may trigger |
| go back to the textbooks if necessary. So don't panic, | | | | big change. It may look, however, like a tipping-point |
| bear with me. There is something about our education | | | | effect, that is, not much is going on or little visible effect |
| that assumes linear connections and the proportionality | | | | at the beginning but, suddenly, things start looking |
| of cause and effect. After all, ideas such as 'the | | | | different and people start doing things differently. You |
| punishment must fit the crime' are deeply embedded in | | | | will probably recognize this, and may have often used |
| our culture. We praise measured responses and | | | | 'quick wins' terminology and practice intuitively. |
| balanced reactions. 'Proportional response', for | | | | Interestingly, the big critics of this thinking are those in |
| example, is a military term indicating the degree of | | | | the change management industry, whether consultant, |
| force to use when attacked. The language of cause | | | | academic, or both, which says that most of these |
| and effect is well-embedded into our education, too, so | | | | things are superficial and don't account as real change. |
| it's no surprise that the idea of output being proportional | | | | This is very often too cautious a view and an |
| to input seems eminently logical. 'So much of this, will | | | | underestimate of the power of a non-linear |
| produce so much of that.' 'You increase this, you get | | | | intervention. |
| more of that.' There is a predominant, learned mental | | | | - The socialization aspects of change are well known. |
| model within us. In mathematics and physics, it would | | | | People need to see things happening to believe them. |
| be called linear. We could say we are educationally, | | | | Cynicism is a chronic illness in many organizations. |
| socially and epistemologically (the theory of | | | | People often respond cynically to mission and vision |
| knowledge) comfortable with linear systems. Sorry, it | | | | statements, lists of 'seven key values' and 'the 10 new |
| sounds grandiose, but it isn't. | | | | commandments'. It is only when leaders start behaving |
| Paradoxically, our linearity-comfortable minds are | | | | in particular ways that people pay attention. There is a |
| surrounded by a non-linear-systems world. In reality we | | | | term for it: walk the walk. But the non-linear aspects of |
| are prisoners of a particular thinking model in a land | | | | organizational life tell us that you may not need |
| where the alternative is the norm. This paradox has | | | | massive interventions or postures by management, |
| implications for the way we manage and lead | | | | just small, concrete actions that can be seen and |
| organizations. I'll get to that later. Here, a good | | | | imitated. The tipping-point effect will spread small |
| distinction between linear and non-linear systems is | | | | actions faster than any gigantic change management |
| described by Jeffrey Goldstein in his book 'The | | | | interventions labeled 'The Big Change Management |
| Unshackled Organization' (1994): "In linear systems, | | | | Initiative'. Tipping-point effects are notoriously present in |
| change is gradual and incremental, whereas in nonlinear | | | | organizational issues such as trust and reputation. Both |
| systems, change can be precipitous and revolutionary. | | | | are gained and lost at different paces that remind us |
| In linear systems the whole is merely the sum of the | | | | of non-linear mechanisms. For example, by doing 'small' |
| parts, whereas in non-linear systems, the whole is | | | | things such as responding to requests for help, trust |
| greater than the sum of the parts. In linear systems, | | | | appears 'at some point', beyond which it is pretty much |
| interaction is only one-way, whereas in non-linear | | | | established. Conversely, a possible 'small breach of |
| systems interaction is multi directional. Linear systems | | | | trust' can trigger a cascade effect and destroy years |
| have predictable outcomes, whereas non-linear | | | | of gains. It sometimes seems irrational to the observer, |
| systems may have unpredictable outcomes." | | | | and it seems so because it is not a 'logical' linear |
| Here is a test: What kind of world do you see when | | | | effect. Experts in reputation management see it all the |
| you look around? If you are like me, you will see it as | | | | time: gains and losses often depend on small actions |
| precipitous and revolutionary, the whole greater than | | | | or chains of events. |
| the sum of its parts, multi directional interactions, | | | | - Because of the hidden power of socialization it is |
| unpredictable outcomes. A non-linear-systems world. I | | | | worth identifying people in the organization, probably |
| feel cheated by my math teacher! He told me 4+4=8. | | | | few, who have the power to spread the change. |
| Not only that, he didn't mention what Albert Einstein | | | | Traditional approaches will say that these are the |
| said about mathematics: "As far as the laws of | | | | natural 'change agents', in other words, those who are |
| mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and | | | | already converted to the need to change are willing to |
| as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality." | | | | do something about it. There is nothing wrong with this |
| Learning from others | | | | - this sub-population is a crucial part of many change |
| Next stop, economics. Paul Ormerod did not invent | | | | management processes, and these people are often |
| non-linear economics but he is known as an advocate | | | | used as internal facilitators. This convention also |
| and controversial economist. He says that traditional | | | | supports the idea that there will always be a pool of |
| linear economics don't work and that the social effect | | | | people who are very resistant to change and 'may not |
| on individuals, copying or learning from others, alters the | | | | make it', in other words, it may be necessary to invite |
| equation. The social factor is a big modifier of man's | | | | them to leave. Very true, but the spin-off from this |
| rationality, and often what would be expected in | | | | thinking is, 'let's give up on them and concentrate on |
| traditional economics doesn't happen because people | | | | everybody else'. Nonlinear change management is |
| behave in a volatile manner. At first glance, the view | | | | more interested in the faster seeding of change. It |
| from this position is disturbing: things are more | | | | looks at ways to inject small changes that can be |
| unpredictable than you think, surprises occur, swings in | | | | amplified. So in parallel to working with 'converted' |
| markets are common, traditional forecasting models | | | | change champions, non-linear management thinking |
| are weak. Cause-and-effect language is still present | | | | would suggest identifying key visible and vocal skeptics |
| but often we are happy just to be 'fooled by | | | | and work on them too. Perhaps some of those may |
| randomness', as a recent book by Nassim Taleb | | | | be in the list of 'possibly will-never-make-it'. Visible |
| illustrates. | | | | skeptics that adapt to changes and buy in are worth |
| Some of Ormerod's positions were reviewed by Bob | | | | 50 already converted who show compliance. |
| Rowthorn, professor of Economics at Cambridge | | | | Suddenly, some of the people on your blacklist may |
| University, in a recent issue of 'Prospect' magazine. | | | | become your assets with their counterintuitive power |
| One is worth quoting in full because of its clarity of | | | | to spread change fast once they 'convert'. |
| message. "Most empirical work in the social sciences is | | | | - In my previous article, 'Forget culture, change |
| based on the assumption that relationships are linear, | | | | behaviors', I suggested focusing on a small set of |
| so that small changes produce small effects and large | | | | non-negotiable behaviors and applying behavioral |
| changes large effects. However, if relationships are | | | | change mechanisms, based upon real behavioral |
| non-linear, the link between cause and effect is more | | | | sciences methodology, can have a significant impact in |
| complex. Over a certain range small changes may | | | | the form of real cultural change - all that, without even |
| produce small effects, but at a 'tipping point' a small | | | | calling it 'cultural change'. This seeding of change via |
| change may produce a very large effect. Moreover, | | | | behaviors is more effective and faster than traditional |
| this very large effect may be extremely hard to | | | | change programs. It relies in part on non-linear thinking - |
| reverse." | | | | the triggering of large effects through apparently small |
| Rowthorn reminds us that this forms the basis of | | | | and focused initiatives. The question is how to identify |
| many assumptions in political systems, often without | | | | those levers or behaviors that have the power to |
| the politicians knowing it. "This is the vision that underlies | | | | create the big impact. It is true that this requires some |
| the conservative argument on crime," he says. "The | | | | thinking and possible external help for the average |
| extent of criminality in a society, it is argued, is partly a | | | | organization unused to dealing with true behavioral |
| matter of material incentives in the form of rewards | | | | change management, but the knowledge and skills can |
| and punishments, and partly a matter of socialization. | | | | easily be transferred to the organization. |
| Consider a society in which the crime rate is initially | | | | Echoes of the chaos theory |
| very low and young people rarely meet criminals who | | | | An old adage says that the flapping wings of a |
| lead them into crime. Suppose that punishments are | | | | butterfly can create a hurricane thousands of miles |
| gradually reduced, with the result that crime slowly | | | | away. There are at least two interpretations of this. |
| increases. In itself, this may not be a serious problem. | | | | The first is philosophical, and possibly New Age: that |
| However, at a certain point the crime rate may | | | | through small actions you can create significant effects |
| suddenly shoot upwards, perhaps stabilizing at a new | | | | in the world. The second belongs to technology: |
| and very high plateau. Policymakers are likely to | | | | computer models of the weather can be so sensitive |
| respond to this development by reverting to the | | | | to initial conditions that the outcome may be changed |
| harsher penalties which they had previously | | | | by the flapping of a butterfly's wings. This is often |
| abandoned. Unfortunately, such penalties may have | | | | called the 'butterfly effect'. Butterfly effects are |
| only a limited impact on the crime rate because | | | | powerful components of a non-linear change |
| decades of liberal policy have given rise to a criminal | | | | management, and far from esoteric. We have a pretty |
| underclass which reproduces itself by transmitting its | | | | good idea today of how to inject these small |
| values to young people." | | | | wing-flappings within organizations to create a true |
| "Conservatives", Rowthorn continues, "offer similar | | | | hurricane-sized change, and to do so without |
| arguments in many other areas, such as divorce law | | | | destroying the organizational fabric and without |
| and welfare for lone parents. In each case, they | | | | paralyzing it in the way some Big Expensive Change |
| believe liberal policies set in train social processes | | | | Initiatives do. Once again, many clues to modern |
| which eventually end in disaster and create situations | | | | management and leadership come from the social |
| that are very hard to reverse. The liberal response is | | | | sciences, not from traditional management thinking. The |
| to dismiss such fears as paranoid and unsupported by | | | | bad news is that many are counter-intuitive and, in the |
| the evidence. This is not the place to adjudicate on the | | | | first instance, difficult to sell. The good news is that you |
| issue. The point is that liberals have a rather linear view | | | | don't have to recycle your MBA or business studies |
| of social policy in which small changes normally | | | | degree; just open the window to the outside world and |
| produce small and reversible effects, whereas | | | | observe. |
| conservatives have a non-linear view, believing that | | | | Traditional management approaches would often ask |
| small changes often give rise to large, unpredictable | | | | you to brainstorm and list the problems, group them |
| and irreversible effects. On environmental issues such | | | | and define them, then apply solutions to each of them. |
| as global warming and biodiversity, the positions of | | | | Although not always the case, people attending those |
| these two groups are reversed. Liberals tend to | | | | in-house big change and strategy seminars end up |
| believe that the world is on the brink of disaster and if | | | | with a list of 50 or so actions that match an equally |
| we do not mend our ways there will be huge and | | | | long list of identified issues. It is pretty much what was |
| irreversible changes, whereas conservatives take a | | | | described before: big problems, big solutions, or a big list |
| more relaxed view." | | | | of issues, a big list of actions. Unfortunately, this is often |
| Life's non-linear framework | | | | just an exercise that makes people happy by being |
| I have taken this long verbal promenade to stress how | | | | able to produce activity lists and giving a false sense |
| our social, political and economic worlds are well | | | | of control, not to mention a false sense of scientific |
| served by understanding their inherent non-linearity, or | | | | process. Wearing non-linear spectacles, it's possible to |
| at least how the way we understand connections | | | | see how a few small actions might have the power to |
| matters, and how adopting a linear or non-linear | | | | produce the change, and these are the ones to focus |
| approach to that reality makes a lot of difference. I | | | | on, making sure that they will be very visible. I can hear |
| have also mentioned how the pervasive non-linear | | | | some people saying: "We do this already, we prioritize, |
| world contrasts with our more linear-thinking education. | | | | we don't go for everything at the same time." |
| This framework has significant implications for the | | | | However, most of this so-called prioritization is usually |
| management of organizations, which is why I am | | | | based on pure resource parameters, that is, this is too |
| bringing it to the table. Here are some key points: | | | | much to do, let's try the things that are do-able, |
| - Most management thinking (but not all) is not | | | | concrete, focused, etc. Prioritization in that scenario is |
| surprisingly pretty linear. It says that big problems need | | | | pure pragmatism. The kind of prioritization I am talking |
| big solutions; big organizational messes need a big | | | | about is very different: it is the search for those |
| shakeup; big issues need a radical, surgical approach. | | | | actions that can trigger butterfly effects, regardless of |
| Goldstein has described it well: "Conventional | | | | any other judgments about resources needed or the |
| approaches to organizational change assume the | | | | complexity of the task. |
| system is linear. Hence management usually assumes | | | | If we apply the simple principle of asking ourselves if |
| that a major change initiative requires extensive | | | | we are acting on linear or non-linear mental models |
| advance planning, that resistance to change must be | | | | and assumptions, we will understand better the |
| anticipated, when resistance arises you overcome it | | | | complexity in the life of organizations, and begin to see |
| with persistence, determination and skill, and that large | | | | that the solutions to some complex problems may rest |
| change requires large-scale efforts. This approach is | | | | on the simple injection of some butterfly effects. A |
| based on a number of questionable assumptions, | | | | series of 'small-radical' initiatives create radical change |
| notably that organizations are 'largely predictable | | | | faster than a big radical turnaround. It's a model and |
| enterprises' that do not change naturally, and are 'inert | | | | technique I have used with clients for a long time, under |
| masses' which require a 'proportionality between effort | | | | the banner 'r+r+r=R', or 10+10+10=1000. I can almost |
| and results'." | | | | hear my math teacher now: "I told you so. |
| - The instinctive "let's have small wins or quick wins" is | | | | |